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Who is to decide the core of market variables? [原创2008-12-24 17:46:09] Tags: No reading object: all If we say that the economic cycle such as water, then in November no doubt the economic data show that the macroeconomic have ice. In the intensive "hot" economic policy, this玄冰can resolve the matter, the nation has become the focus of common concern. Serious need medicine, the future "more direct, more forceful and effective" in boosting the introduction of economic measures, with the formation of these negative fundamentals against it? Positive economic trends and policies during the game, who will become the market the trend of the most important variables? "Every by" this "great forum" guest invited known as "Commander short" of that predicted at the bottom of the stock market super Financial commentators Ning, but also invited to the blog of self by friends as a "blind to see more" that the current market "very good, excellent, very good" and hearing the text, principal analyst for the National Day, as well as macroeconomic Qilu Securities senior analyst edge thread and莫尼塔Bao (Beijing) Co., Ltd. to invest in the development strategy analyst祁益peak to explore the forces behind economic data and market trend of strength. (Due to the temporal and spatial distance, the so-called "guest" is indeed a telephone interview) Macroeconomic data release policy bottom positive signals Last week's Central Economic Work Conference in November and economic data have a significant impact on the market, economic data in November reflects the global economic crisis on China's impact on the real economy and China's economy is facing a critical situation, the Central Economic Work Conference is to determine the current economic situation and set the tone in 2009 the most authoritative indicator of macroeconomic policies. November economic data released, on the one hand shows the macroeconomic Verge, on the other hand also shows that management's grasp of the overall economic situation, and continuously introduced a major positive, with the formation of these bad news confrontation, under the pressure of the multiple, the stock market toward what will become of investors are most concerned about the topic. 【Focus one: macro data】 VS deep on the Verge of a more healthy In November due to the macroeconomic data, the situation is very optimistic, a lot of data to create an annual low, low or even years. In these figures, China's macro-economic side in the end what is the situation, after going? Next year, the data still ugly November will become the future macroeconomic data the most "bad" month, the economic downturn will continue to speed up the pace? Ning: It is now the pace of economic decline noticeably accelerated, and will continue to decline. Steel as an example, large and medium-sized iron and steel in August than the same period last year profits fell by 16 points more than 73 percent decline in September to October has become a comprehensive loss of 58 million, significantly accelerating the trend of decline. Flameout in the export of the state, to maintain domestic economic development falls on the real estate people, and real estate so far is far from enough to adjust. It can be speculated that the next year's GDP are difficult security 7. Why not let the country is now in real estate fell, introduced so many policies, on the one hand is the attitude of care to people's livelihood, launched by the fitness room, in fact, on the other hand out so many policies, including two suites, which are all in order to activate the real estate market . The problem is that the income of real estate so high, and the real purchasing power of ordinary people from so far, but also relative to the global economy in a slump, people are aware of this issue, prices will likely decline. Bao Xu-edge: November relatively poor economic data, in October and November compared differ greatly in October after the deterioration of the economic data has accelerated the trend of the situation, the short term this trend will not change. Macro data in December than in November perhaps even more ugly, economic fundamentals can not be said to accelerate the decline, but will continue to decline. The continued deterioration may be a year's time, at least the middle of next year, when the macro-economic data may also be embarrassed this year. November data has two concerns, one is the power output in November fell 9.6 percent, the biggest monthly drop in history; a number of China's exports by 7 years since the first negative growth in these two data you , how? Ning: negative growth in exports means that the external demand as the global economic recession in the rapidly shrinking, the Chinese economy for so many years and sustained rapid development, mainly because of high investment and foreign trade. The current economic recession has just begun, many enterprises have closed down the country, many workers are forced to return home. This proves that we sustain this high-mode, the main policy focus now should also speed up the restructuring. But the state in order to maintain employment, have to continue relying on the stimulation of investment, equivalent to drug addicts temporarily ease some breath, it is difficult to resolve the substantive issues. Radical approach or the need for upgrading the economic structure to upgrade, and truly the "three high" mode to stop and reflect on, so that more value-added products, rather than the experts said the "potato model." (This is a painful process but have to) The productivity of the use of many low-cost production of goods, when the disaster approaches, more cheap goods market, which is the so-called potato effect. However, we are all so many years by selling potatoes from now the international market a little sign of trouble, domestic insist there is no way, and a large number of workers will have to go home. Now in this respect or the lack of profound self-examination, refused to admit these models enormous problem. The actual proportion of wealth in the upgrade Wen Guoqing: These data are no exports is negative, but we do not hope that it is negative么? CPI is likely in the first quarter of next year and negative, this is a year-on-year data. In fact, this into account in particular do not have to fear, we just are not accustomed to, used to be just fine. In fact, the decline in the data on China's position is good. Ostensibly on behalf of all the wealth will shrink, but the others had experienced negative growth, we reduced the growth rate of real wealth is to enhance the proportion of relatively better past. Most of the U.S. wealth financial wealth, China is more than physical wealth, so the process of shrinking the United States certainly affected relatively large, and China is not particularly large impact. Can do a simple comparison, if we are the economic base of 100, the United States throughout the year with negative growth of 2 percentage points, China will increase by only 5 percentage points, then what is the concept? 105:98, the result is 1.07; if China 110 The United States is 104, then we are only 1.06 times the United States, we will now look at the relative level of wealth in China has improved. China's growth than in the past when 10 percent better, the status of the comparative advantages of better, relatively more money to the United States, the economic situation better, to enjoy a higher percentage of the wealth. But the Chinese people there is no way to wealth into the hands of U.S. dollar assets to enjoy the wealth ah? Wen Guoqing: the individual did not change, but the state can ah. You can buy bulk commodities, agricultural products, they are in times of deflation, we enjoy a higher proportion of wealth. Of course, in the domestic distribution of wealth is faced with a question of fairness. Data on the stock market is, how the impact of this? Bao Xu-edge: The data on the stock market is not a good run. The market value of the Center continued the downward movement of the market to maintain a balanced state of the disadvantaged is more reasonable. 【Focus II: at the bottom of the forecast】 A future of how stocks, fell below 1664 points, will it? When the lowest level? 1664 points can not be the A shares at the end of Reporter: What do you expected the process of economic adjustment will continue until 2010, then the stock market bottomed out the middle of next year can it? Bao Xu-edge: This is mainly to see the economy as a whole the trend of next year, and now can see clearly that the first half of next year the market is deflation, GDP growth has declined and a drop in commodity prices, money supply is not improved. Ning: the situation can remain in the circumstances, the fundamentals of the stock market trend remains unchanged, this situation will continue for some time, so whether the stock market trend is also unable to determine how long. If the U.S. Big Three auto companies going bankrupt a few, I have always asserted that the U.S. stock market will fall below 7000 points, then China's stock market may also be below 1664 points, 1664 points can not be the A shares at the end. 祁益peaks: in November of this data does not exceed market expectations, the market is also expected to digest this bad. Early due to exchange rate issues, there is obviously a freeze on exports of the phenomenon of lack of demand, which makes the growth of aggregate demand encountered some difficulties. In fact now in the adjustment process of the economy to gradually decline, but the short term the market still have some pressure. In the latter half of next year, the market should still be the trend. Wen Guoqing: I do not know yet whether there will be more bad data, but overall little to fear. The United States has a negative growth, from 4% to -2%, have reached the bottom of the external could not be low. Bottomed out the middle of next year Reporter: in the latter half of next year, the industry can not agree that the economy bottomed out it? 祁益peak: Basically is this conclusion. Because of insufficient demand, the current inventory is digested. Pro-active fiscal policy to stimulate the economy resistance to lack of demand brought about by the economic downturn, the economy maintained at an acceptable level. Also boosted confidence in the market. Policies and fundamentals of the game, and ultimately the market trend also depends on the fundamentals, but the policies and fundamentals are unified behind the two complement each other, policy ultimately settled on the fundamentals. The current policy and to stimulate the market before the pure policy is not the same, and now the policy of the end-result in the real economy, the fact is in and the fight against deflation. 【Focus III: stocks opportunity】 Frequent introduction of policies to rescue the market, including the recently introduced two sets of mortgage untied the New Deal, in the end of each section of the stock caused by the impact of what? Little stimulus Reporter: The real estate policies on the "Second Suite" There loosening of Italy, will drive up housing prices, the impact on the relevant stock geometry? Bao Xu-edge: These policies do not drive prices up, consumers do not agree with the current prices, the real estate industry in the current overall decline in sales volume to accelerate. The key is the current high prices will not drive sales. Good real estate stocks is a factor to cut interest rates to encourage people to buy a house loan, reduce its cost. However, the policy of sharply cut interest rates could drive prices up, can it be to promote the upgrading of housing turnover, I do not think it either. Ning: real estate is now the Government is in the rescue, but do you think can save it? I think when the real estate business came to hear the voices of bankruptcy, the economy will be reflected at the bottom. Anyway, now have not heard of any bankruptcy. Wen Guoqing: real estate stocks now is the early Jiancang, overall no problem. Housing prices may be down there, but now the cost of housing construction dropped a lot of energy fell by 50 percent, that for the real estate business for a lower price, real estate is a high energy-consuming industries, steel and cement, decorating materials are low, then prices will naturally later dropped. And now a lot of real estate operators are more than double profits, and now prices have dropped by 30 percent, that is, house prices fell by 20% ~ 30%, he is still a lot of profit, or less than that of industrial high, do not have to worry about the real estate business . 祁益peaks: the loosening of policy is not a great extent, is essentially a conservative loose, but there are on the line of credit support may be beneficial to real estate industry. But short-term real estate investment growth rate has constrained the index continued to rise. Real estate investment growth rate in November dropped to 22.7 percent, which means that the recent industrial profit growth and the industrial added value growth rate may be poor performance. While the export growth and industrial growth rate of total profit also has high relevance, the profits of non-listed companies can hardly be optimistic that this will also put pressure indexes. (Daily Economic News reporters Jiang Yan and Yan Deng December 20 a joint report)
